Stochastic Multitype Epidemic Models with Rare Contacts

Mikael Andersson

Dept of Mathematical Statistics, Chalmers Univ of Tech, Gothenburg, Sweden

Abstract

A common condition on stochastic multitype models for the spread of infectious diseases is that the contact pattern is irreducible. This means that there are sufficiently frequent contacts between individuals of different types to ensure that a large epidemic will affect all types in a population. By relaxing this rather restrictive condition, it is possible to get a more complex behaviour, where some types may escape the disease almost entirely. Some interesting phenomena also arise if we allow contact intensities of two different magnitudes; frequent and rare.